Just summarised a 2019 paper that explored the role of three biases on pilots’ subsequent judgements on encountering adverse weather conditions: 1) outcome bias, 2) availability bias and 3) hindsight bias.
Summary posted in the coming week or two, but to the complete lack of surprise to, I think, everybody, they found evidence that both outcome and hindsight biases affect subsequent judgements from pilots.
No evidence for availability bias was found in this study.
Interestingly, and supporting prior findings from Dillon & Tinsley et al., pilots considered close-call events similarly to positive outcomes.
Based on this conflation and underappreciation for straddling failure, and based on their findings of outcome and hindsight biases, the authors argue that:
1) pilots may deal with close-calls “in a way that may limit any learning opportunities” (p1134), and
2) “hindsight bias and outcome bias were found to affect pilots’ ability to form an accurate perception of some past events. Pilot ability to clearly understand past events may hinder learning opportunities, therefore reinforcing risky behaviour near adverse weather” (p1135)
Ref: Walmsley, S., & Gilbey, A. (2019). Applied cognitive psychology, 33(6), 1124-1136.
Link to the LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benhutchinson2_just-summarised-a-2019-paper-that-explored-activity-7081069469208375297-4pVl?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
SafetyInsights.org 
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