SafetyInsights.org

This study has been cited a lot, so I thought time to summarise it. It studied the relationship between fatal and non-fatal accidents, and economic activity, in Finnish manufacturing and construction industries (between 1977 – 1991).

Note: The age of this study (published 1998 and analysing data from 47-33 years ago) must be considered.

Overall they found:

• The relationship between fatal and non-fatal accidents was reverse and statistically significant in construction
• That is, the fatality rate in the construction industry increases when the accident frequency declines
• In construction, the fatality rate increased with declining number of cubic metres under construction
• Results didn’t support a pro-cyclic relationship between business cycles and fatal accidents
• Results support the hypothesis of different causal mechanisms between fatal and non-fatal [** although this paper didn’t evaluate hazardous energy and the like]
• Other explanatory variables, e.g. average labour market conditions, working hours, number of workers and unemployment had only minimal or no correlation with fatality rate
• Generally, “accidents seem to concentrate in the lower positions: the risk of accidents among non-skilled workers is twice as high as among carpenters”.

Discussing the findings, they observe that “there is no meaningful connection between fatal accidents and business cycles” and none of their labour market indicators as mentioned above were associated with workplace deaths. This is with the exception of declining production, which was followed by an increase in fatalities.

Based on their data, they contend that “It is not possible to reconstruct a clear and natural chain from minor accidents to fatalities” [** I disagree based on newer work but think it’s still pretty prudent to aggressively focus on high-potential hazards/failures].

Further, the “statistical material used in this study is limited and could hardly have provided any conclusive solution either to the problem of the causation of different kinds of accidents or to the paradoxes regarding business cycles” but it does, nevertheless, provide some interesting paradoxes to be explored.

Authors: Saloniemi, A., & Oksanen, H. (1998). Accidents and fatal accidents—some paradoxes. Safety Science, 29(1), 59-66.

Study link: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-7535(98)00016-2

LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benhutchinson2_this-study-has-been-cited-a-lot-so-i-thought-activity-7152052534755360768-RKrT?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop